Russia's all-out war on Ukraine started three years ago, and there's no end in sight. Even if the conflict ended today, the people of Ukraine still wouldn't be safe.
Research suggests the war's effects on people, wildlife and the environment will last long into the future.
The environment suffered $56.4 billion (€53.8 billion) in damage in the first year of the war. The total cost after three years of war is not yet estimated.
A report released on the third anniversary of the war found that 229.7 million tons of CO2 emissions were blasted or burned into the atmosphere during the last three years of the war.
A war on people and the environment
Researchers are tracking the extent to which landscape destruction, shelling, forest fires, deforestation and pollution are affecting Ukraine’s wildlife and natural habitats.
A 2024 analysis by a US-Ukrainian research team found that 30% of Ukraine's protected areas had been adversely affected.
The team, which is led by Daniel Hryhorczuk, professor emeritus at the Institute for Environmental and Occupational Safety and Epidemiology at the University of Illinois in the US, fears Russia's occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the destruction of the Kakhovka dam will lead to lasting ecological catastrophe.
In addition, they say the local air, water and soil are contaminated with chemicals on a large scale and that 30% of Ukraine is contaminated with land mines and unexploded ordnance.
Once those chemicals get into the soils and groundwater, it may only be a matter of time before they are transmitted to humans via plants, animals and drinking water.
At least, that is what toxicologists say could happen. They aren't entirely sure how the environment will deal with these toxic substances or what effect they could have on humans.
TNT is carcinogenic
Among the most dangerous elements in munitions are the explosives themselves and heavy metals. Trinitrotoluene, better known as TNT, is a nitroaromatic compound known for its explosive power.
"We know through experiments on rats and mice that TNT is toxic," said Edmund Maser, director of the Institute for Toxicology at the University Clinic in Kiel, Germany.
Maser researches the effects of the munitions that were dumped in the German part of the North and Baltic Seas after World War II — 1.6 million tons of munitions were rusting away there.
Toxicologists have also observed in the seas that the TNT released from the dumped munitions is harming animals in the surrounding area. "TNT compromises the ability of marine life to reproduce, grow, and develop," said Maser. "We also know from these studies that TNT and other explosives are carcinogenic."
Mercury, arsenic and lead destroy cells
Some heavy metals, such as arsenic and cadmium, are carcinogenic.
"Above all, the detonators contain heavy metals, such as mercury in the form of a fulminate that makes the TNT explode faster," said Maser. A fulminate acts as a kind of catalyst.
As a heavy metal, mercury is also damaging to nerve cells. "It can lead to birth defects in unborn babies," said Maser.
Lead has similar effects and can cause developmental disorders or miscarriages.
Kateryna Smirnova, a researcher at the Sokolovsky Institute for Soil Science and Agrochemistry Research at Ukraine's National Academy of the Sciences, said soil samples from Kharkiv — one of the major battle sites in the east of the country — had already shown higher concentrations of lead and cadmium.
Smirnova's colleague, Oksana Naidyonova, a microbiologist at the Sokolovsky Institute, explained that heavy metals negatively affect soil bacteria.
"They inhibit the development of plants and the supply of micronutrients, which leads to physiological defects and reduces their ability to withstand disease," Naidyonova said.
However, the chemicals will not necessarily stay in the soil. Maser said TNT, for example, could be carried away by the wind and distributed farther afield. Rain could even reach some of the substances found deeper underground.
"The elements may then get into surface waters and contaminate streams, rivers, and lakes," he said.
A toxic cycle
Maser said that if animals ingest the chemicals, they can enter the food chain and eventually become dangerous for humans as end consumers.
He added that if the rains run off, allowing the chemicals to seep into the groundwater, "that would mean drinking water was at risk of becoming contaminated."
Plants could consume mercury and other chemicals if the water becomes contaminated this way. If these plants are crops like wheat or vegetables, the same chemicals would end up on our dinner plates.
Environmental damage in the billions
The example of Ukraine illustrates the immense costs of the destruction caused by war. According to this latest analysis, the war in Ukraine has caused environmental damage of more than $56.4 billion (€52 billion).
Hryhorczuk's team is calling for the environmental consequences of all armed conflicts to be investigated and for more effective measures to be taken to protect the environment during war. They also want those responsible for damaging the environment during war and those who instigate a war to be held accoutable.
