Russia-Ukraine war: Is the Zelenskyy-Xi call a game changer?

More than 14 months after Russia invaded Ukraine, Chinese President Xi Jinping held his first phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday.

China emphasized that its core position is promoting peace talks while promising to send a special envoy to Ukraine and hold talks with all parties in the ongoing conflict.

Zelenskyy characterized the talks with Xi as "long and meaningful."

"I believe that this call, as well as the appointment of Ukraine's ambassador to China, will give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations," Zelenskyy wrote on Twitter.

Will the phone call change China's stance?

The call, which was the first known contact between Xi and Zelenskyy since the Russian invasion, was welcomed by the US, the EU, France and Germany — while Russia said it welcomes any move that could help bring the end of the conflict soon.

However, the Kremlin said it still needed to achieve the goals of its "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The White House added that it was too soon to determine whether it could lead to a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

Washington's caution is shared by some experts, who think the call fails to offer anything new regarding China's stance on the conflict.

"On the one hand, the call was an old-fashioned conversation centering around the friendship between China and Ukraine, and it failed to offer any concrete peace proposals to the ongoing conflict," said Wu Qiang, an independent Chinese analyst in Beijing.

"It also didn't condemn the Russian invasion. All of China's political positions reflected through the call remain the same."

'Damage limitation'

Other experts say China wants to keep pushing for the "peacemaker" narrative through Xi's call with Zelenskyy while repairing the damages caused by controversial comments made by Lu Shaye, the Chinese ambassador to France this week.

During an interview with French broadcaster TF1, Lu questioned the sovereignty of former Soviet countries, claiming they have no "effective status" under international law.

"Lu's remarks upset many people in Europe, which leads to some reading the effort to reach out to Zelenskyy at this point as an attempt to show that China is taking European concerns about sovereignty and peace seriously," said Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore.

However, some observers say the call is much more than controlling the damages caused by Lu's comments, as Beijing hopes to use the ongoing conflict to portray itself as a global power that's capable of facilitating the peace process.

"It's an opportunity to project the image back home that internationally, China is really important and can drive the process," said Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, an assistant professor at the National Dong Hwa University (NDHU) in Taiwan.

"It's also a message to countries in the Global South, who are following China's record as an international actor. If China pulls this off and manages to be the driving force in how Russia and Ukraine go forward, it's a huge opportunity for Beijing to project itself like that globally," she told DW.

Zsuzsa added that the call with Zelenskyy is just one step in the bigger picture of how Beijing positions itself in the unfolding situation.

Skepticism toward China's neutrality remains

While China continues to highlight its neutrality in the Ukraine war, analysts and some world leaders remain skeptical over Beijing's real intention.

In an exclusive interview with DW, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda cast doubt on China's credibility as a mediator, emphasizing that condemnation of Russia's invasion has to be the precondition for Beijing to become a real mediator.

Since last February, China has been building a "no limits partnership" with Russia by deepening bilateral ties on multiple fronts.

Even though China stops short of offering Russia military support, Beijing has also not condemned Russia's invasion or characterized the conflict as a "war."

Despite China's attempt to frame itself as a "peacemaker" by putting forward a 12-point peace plan in February, its lack of action to pressure Russia creates serious doubt about its true position in the conflict.

"The content of China's readout shows no sign that Beijing is shifting away from its position on the war," said Ferenczy from NDHU.

Ferenczy pointed out that the readout almost ignores that there is an ongoing war against Ukraine, and to many European countries, Beijing is ticking the box to demonstrate that they are a neutral player in the ongoing war as they have talked to both Ukraine and Russia.

"We need to be careful about how China goes forward after the phone call," Ferenczy told DW.

Despite the lingering skepticism towards China's credibility as a mediator, one former Ukrainian diplomat said it's in all parties' interest if China maintains an ambiguous position regarding the war, as it'll be damaging for Ukraine and catastrophic for the world if China aligns itself with "the occupier who is not winning the war."

"I think it would be logical and prudent of China to be ambiguous about this," said Olexander Scherba, former Ukrainian ambassador to Austria. 

Europe's dilemma regarding China

While the EU and several European countries welcomed Xi's call with Zelenskyy, with the German government describing it as "a good signal," Ferenczy from NDHU thinks the EU still faces a dilemma of how to deal with China at a time when there is skepticism among European countries.

"There is a dilemma regarding how to go forward with China," she told DW.

"I think the EU needs to maintain a clear and tough stance vis-a-vis Russia and China and the EU needs to condemn any lack of actions" Ferenczy added. 

"If Europe doesn't drive the peace process along the fundamental elements that are in line with international norms, including the respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty, China will drive it along its agenda."

With the trust between Europe and China remaining fragile, some Ukrainian experts think one of the goals for China to arrange the call between Xi and Zelenskyy at this particular time is to lay the foundation for its potential involvement in possible peace negotiations down the road.

"China is preparing for the conditions, setting up the channels of communication and sending their special representative to Ukraine to maybe understand the situation better," said Yurii Poita, a visiting research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan.

"These are maybe efforts that could create conditions for Beijing to be involved in the peace negotiation in the future."

However, Poita argued that with Russia being a very important strategic partner for China, Beijing is unlikely to be a fair mediator.

"As China is engaged in a strategic competition with the US, and their economy is very complimentary to the Russian economy, China would still be leaning towards Russia ultimately," he told DW.