India overtook China last year to become the world's most populous country, with a population of approximately 1.45 billion people.
For decades, rapid population growth has been viewed as a major challenge and successive governments have emphasized population control.
In 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that a large population was obstructing the country's development and urged state governments to address the issue.
However, some political leaders in India are now worried about the opposite problem — falling fertility rates and not having enough births to ensure a stable population.
'Call for more babies'
Nara Chandrababu Naidu, the chief minister of the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, recently shifted his focus from promoting population control to encouraging families to have more children.
He even proposed a law that would allow only those with two or more children to run for local elections.
A few days later, another chief minister, M.K. Stalin, from the neighboring state of Tamil Nadu, echoed similar thoughts and also urged people there to have more children.
For decades, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and other Indian states actively promoted small family sizes, encouraging people to limit themselves to two children. So, why are political leaders from southern India now encouraging larger families?
Massive drop in fertility rates
India's fertility rate has dropped dramatically over the past century.
The figure remained consistent from 1880 to 1970, with statistics showing women in India having an average of 5.7 to 6 children over their lifetimes.
But by 2022, this number had dropped to around 2.01 children per woman, below the so-called replacement level — the rate needed to stabilize the population.
"European countries like France and the UK took more than 200 years to lower their fertility rates, while the US took around 145 years," Srinivas Goli, a demography professor at the International Institute for Population Sciences, told DW. "In India, however, this change happened in just 45 years. The speed of this transition is the biggest concern."
Due to this rapid decline in birth rates, India is experiencing a rise in its aging population faster than expected. Although there are currently more working-age people, the growing number of older individuals could create challenges in the future, Goli said.
"India has a 'window of opportunity' to become a developed nation while the working-age population is larger than the dependent population (children and the elderly). This period began in 2005 and will last until 2061, with the most significant benefits expected until 2045," the expert underlined. "We are reaping the benefits of a younger population, but there is still much more potential to be realized."
J. Jeyaranjan, economist and vice chairman of Tamil Nadu State Planning Commission, said an aging population could present an unprecedented challenge for India, one that could place significant financial strain on society.
"Taking care of an elderly population will be a challenge for both families and the state," he told DW, adding, "Unfortunately, we haven't given enough thought to policies for this yet."
Birth rates in southern India match Nordic countries
While low fertility rates are a growing concern across India, the southern states are particularly alarmed.
All the five southern states — Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka, with a combined population of over 240 million people — are facing a sharp decline in birth rates, falling well below the national average of 2.01.
India was the first country to adopt a national family planning policy in the 1950s to control its population explosion. "The southern states adapted this policy very rigorously," Goli said. He added that states like Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu now have fertility rates comparable to those of Nordic countries in Europe. For example, in 2023, Finland's fertility rate was 1.3, according to the UN.
However, there is a stark contrast in economic status.
"When it comes to per capita income or human development indicators, India lags far behind other countries," Goli noted. "For instance, Andhra Pradesh's per capita income is 22 times lower than that of Sweden."
Apart from economic consequences, the southern states are also grappling with political repercussions due to the declining birth rates.
"Lower birth rates in the south mean slower population growth compared to northern states. This could impact their political influence, as seats in parliament and federal funding are based on population size," Jeyaranjan noted.
In India, states receive a share of the government revenue generated by central taxes, such as income tax and corporate tax, based on factors like population, fiscal needs and other socio-economic indicators like per capita income.
As a result, with their smaller populations and higher per capita incomes, southern states receive less funding, putting them at a disadvantage.
Next year, the Indian government is expected to begin conducting the next census, an official survey of the country's population. After the census, there could be a redrawing of parliamentary seats based on the updated population figures.
Many in the southern states fear that the exercise would reduce the number of seats they currently represent in parliament, as their populations are now lower than those of some states in northern India.
Will more children solve the problem?
Goli argues that political leaders encouraging higher birth rates may not be an effective solution to addressing the challenges posed by declining fertility.
"Childbearing has become increasingly expensive, making it challenging for families to raise children while meeting modern living standards," he explained, underscoring why many couples are hesitant to have children.
The expert says India could curb childbirth decline by ensuring gender equality and implementing supportive work-family policies. However, he emphasizes that a complete trend reversal is virtually impossible.
"No country in the world has successfully reversed fertility rates after trying for decades."
