Tensions between India and Pakistan are the highest they've been in years following a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir on Tuesday, that New Delhi has blamed on what it says are militant groups supported by Islamabad.
On Wednesday, India downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan, closed a key border crossing and, critically, said it would suspend a water-sharing treaty until "Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism."
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar on Thursday challenged India to provide any evidence tying Pakistan to the attack that killed 26 people near the city of Pahalgam.
"India has repeatedly engaged in the blame game. If there is evidence of Pakistan's involvement in the Pahalgam incident, we urge them to share it with us and the international community," said Dar.
In an address Thursday responding to the attack, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said India would "identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backer."
The attack has shocked India because it targeted civilian tourists, representing an escalation from previous attacks in Kashmir that have mostly targeted security forces.
According to Indian media reports, there were five to six attackers, who shot for about 10 minutes in three spots at the Baisaran meadow in Pahalgam on Tuesday. They arrived from the nearby pine forests carrying rifles.
Survivors' accounts said the assailants approached the tourists and asked them their religion. They were asked to recite Islamic verses and if they failed, they were shot, reported Indian news channel NDTV.
India and Pakistan both claim the northern Muslim-majority Kashmir region in full. But each country only rules parts of the area, making it a regional flash point with a decadeslong insurgency being waged against India in the parts it controls. India has claimed militant groups in the region are backed by Pakistan, a claim denied by Islamabad.
Blocking water an 'act of war' for Pakistan
After a high-level security meeting on Thursday, Pakistan announced a series of retaliatory measures against India. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's office said any attempt by India to divert the waters of the Indus River would be considered an "act of war."
The Indus Water Treaty was mediated by the World Bank and signed by India and Pakistan in 1960. It has never been suspended, despite multiple wars and skirmishes between the archrival neighbors.
The treaty regulates the sharing of water from the Indus River and its tributaries. Pakistan is dependent on water flowing downstream from Kashmir. For years, Pakistan has been concerned that dams built by India could cut the flow of water into Pakistan.
According to Reuters news agency, the suspension of the treaty shouldn't have an immediate effect on water flow to Pakistan, as India does not have enough storage capacity to hold back the river. However, the suspension could affect information sharing on the water flows.
"The Indus Water Treaty may well be a relic of the past that requires considerable modifications, particularly due to climate change," Pakistan-based international law expert Osama Malik told DW. "However, even in its current state, it is a treaty that has been effective even in times of war. Article 12 allows only for a bilateral withdrawal from the treaty and there is no provision for a unilateral suspension.
"There has been unusually low rainfall and snow in Pakistan this year and if India, as a result of the unilateral and illegal suspension of this treaty, decides to reduce the flow, it would result in a catastrophic drought-like situation, and there would be food shortages," Malik added.
With Indian officials also suggesting the possibility of military strikes, observers in Pakistan are growing increasingly concerned. Television broadcasts are dominated by defense analysts cautioning about the unpredictable consequences that could arise if hostilities between the nuclear-armed neighbors escalate.
After a 2019 attack on security personnel in Kashmir that was claimed by a Pakistan-based Islamist militant group, India carried out airstrikes in Pakistani territory, bringing the countries to the brink of war.
Maria Sultan, a defense analyst based in Islamabad, told DW that India's suspension of the water treaty amounts to "serious brinkmanship."
"Water is a red line and violation of the Indus Water Treaty or any efforts to reduce Pakistan's water supply will be termed as an act of war," she said.
Maleeha Lodhi, an international affairs analyst and former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UN and UK, told DW that as of Thursday "both sides have had their say."
"The need is now to avoid further escalation and quickly establish a back channel to bring down the temperature. However, if India takes any military action, then all bets will be off and that will risk triggering a full-blown crisis as Pakistan will be sure to retaliate," she said.
Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said Thursday that India is "fighting a low-intensity war against us, and if they up the scale, we are ready. To protect our land, we will not come under any international pressure."
Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, told DW that she sees the current situation as being "potentially very dangerous."
"The punitive actions by India, in particular the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, are significant. It shows just how precarious the relationship between the two countries has been for years; it is always one attack away from potentially drastic escalation."
