Ukraine gets historic EU green-light after Orban drops veto

An EU summit in Brussels delivered an unexpected piece of welcome news at a bleak moment of the Russia-Ukraine war. Kyiv can soon begin official talks to join the European Union after getting the green light from the bloc's leaders on Thursday. Hungary, which had been threatening to veto the decision, stood aside at the last minute.

"This is a victory for Ukraine. A victory for all of Europe. A victory that motivates, inspires, and strengthens," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on X, formerly Twitter.

Few had expected such a decisive outcome at the gathering of EU leaders in Brussels. Ahead of the two-day summit, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban had been pounding home his message that Ukraine was not ready to open accession negotiations — the first step in a long, winding and uncertain path to join the EU.

Hungary's Orban issues threats, then steps out at vote

Orban arrived at the meeting guns blazing, repeating that his country was against opening talks with Ukraine as the sole opponent among the 27 member states.

"There is no reason to negotiate membership of Ukraine now," Orban told reporters, arguing that Kyiv had not fulfilled all the requirements set out by the European Commission in June 2022 in areas like tackling corruption, ensuring minority rights and reducing the influence of oligarchs.

He said he would also not sign off on an EU budget top-up, including €50 billion ($55 billion) of fresh aid for Kyiv over four years. He added, however, that he would consider this being financed from outside the budget.

Nine hours later, however, European Council President Charles Michel announced a surprise breakthrough on X: The European Council decided to open accession negotiations with both Ukraine and Moldova and also to grant fellow aspirant Georgia candidate status, an important precursor to opening accession negotiations.

Within the hour, Orban had posted a video message on the same platform. "It is a completely irrational and incorrect decision to start negotiations with Ukraine," he said. "On the other hand, the other 26 countries insisted that this decision be made… for this reason, Hungary did not participate in this decision."

Diplomatic sources told DW that Orban had left the room at the proposal of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. This cleared the way for the remaining 26 states to vote with no one in the room to object to the decision.

EU accession negotiations — even after they start — can often take years or even decades to complete. 

Following the decision on accession talks, however, Orban rejoined talks and prevented the bloc from approving €50 billion in financing for Kyiv, postponing further discussions until January.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said 26 EU countries agreed to provide Ukraine with the money from the EU budget until 2027, but Hungary was against that decision, which requires unanimity.

"I am fairly confident we can get a deal early next year, we are thinking of late January," said Rutte.

A message to Kyiv and to Moscow

Under EU rules, member states must agree unanimously on important matters like accession to the bloc. While abstentions are technically allowed under these unanimity rules, the 27 member states often stay up late into the night seeking consensus at summits. Orban's absence was a rare deviation from this norm.

Back in November, the European Commission recommended starting talks with Ukraine. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the country had satisfied 90% of the criteria, praising Ukraine for recent efforts to reform its judiciary and anti-money laundering system against the backdrop of war with Russia.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said on X that it also was "a very clear message to Moscow" and Russian President Vladimir Putin: "Us Europeans, we don't let go of Ukraine."

Thursday's decision sent "a strong message to Kyiv that simultaneously fighting off an invasion and pushing on with reforms have been worth the effort, and that Moscow's strategy of waiting for an erosion of European unity over Ukraine could yet prove a miscalculation," Simon Schlegel, a Ukraine analyst at the nongovernmental organization Crisis Group, told DW.

Celebrations, but a bleak year ahead

For Kyiv, the development comes at a moment of low morale, nearly 22 months since Russia launched its full-scale invasion. Weapons and cash are dwindling, and there are worrying signs coming from key allies in Europe and Washington on the political will to continue financial and military support for Ukraine.

"Ukraine faces a bleak year ahead. As temperatures drop, Russia has stepped up its bombardment and is signalling its belief that it can outlast Ukraine and the West. Ukraine's weapons supplies are depleted by the counteroffensive, and its allies are struggling to quickly ramp up production," Alissa de Carbonnel, another Crisis Group analyst, told DW.

€10 billion for Orban to wait outside?

Ahead of the EU leaders' summit, many in Brussels had speculated over what Orban had hoped to achieve by threatening to veto the accession talks.

On the eve of the summit, the European Commission unblocked about €10 billion in funding for Hungary that had been frozen as a punishment for alleged democratic backsliding under Orban. A further €12 billion remains frozen.

Unfreezing the funds was not universally welcomed, as some claimed Budapest had not met the necessary criteria.

"Von der Leyen is paying the biggest bribe in EU history to the autocrat and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin-friend Viktor Orban," German EU lawmaker Daniel Freund said on social media on Wednesday. "The signal is disastrous: Orban's blackmail pays off."

Regardless of how the deal came about, many EU leaders welcomed the decision to start accession talks on Thursday. One of them was freshly installed Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. 

"I dedicate our [sic] today's decision on enlargement to your heroes who gave their lives for an independent and European Ukraine," he tweeted.