2012 UP poll data with 2014 outcome throws up interesting scenario for 2017
Friday, 6 January 2017 (13:12 IST)
New Delhi: The coming elections in Uttar Pradesh throw up a very interesting scenario if the ratio of vote percentage and the number of seats secured by major state players in the 2012 Assembly polls are compared with the outcome of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, in which the Modi charisma is believed to have helped the BJP to make almost a clean sweep of the state. A difference of just about five to seven per cent in the vote share of the two major players in the 2012 Assembly elections and 2014 Lok Sabha elections had upset all calculation in the state with the SP and the BSP citadels coming crumbling down.
The Bahujan Samaj Party had got 80 seats with 25.91 per cent votes in the previous Assembly elections, but a decrease of about five per cent in its votes played havoc with fortunes in the Lok Sabha elections, with no seats in its kitty. The ruling SP, which had got 29.29 per cent votes in the 2012 Assembly polls, had fared slightly better than the BSP against the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections securing 22.2 per cent votes with five seats. The BJP had got 42.3 per cent votes in the Lok Sabha polls, which was roughly the combined percentage of the SP and BSP votes, but had walked away with lion’s share of 71 out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state. In the 2012 Assembly polls, the BJP had got 15 .21 per cent votes with 47 seats. Congress had secured only two seats with 7.5 per cent votes in the 2014 elections as compared to 11.65 per cent in the 2012 Assembly polls in which its had bagged 28 seats.
The results of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in the state were perplexing as the decrease in the percentage of SP and BSP votes was not commensurate with the humiliating depletion in the number of their seats. Political pundits are waiting with their fingers crossed to see whether the Modi charisma would be at work still after two and a half years of incumbency, and to what extent post demonetisation. The internal strife in the Samajwadi family, with rival camps being led by young Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and his father Mulayam Singh Yadav, the founder-leader of the SP, has added yet another dimension to the election scene.
The infighting would certainly help the BJP, but any alliance between the Akhilesh camp and the Congress can also upset some calculations. As per the schedule announced by the Election Commission yesterday, polls in the state will be held in seven phases, starting from February 11. Polling for the seventh and last phase will be held on March 8. The counting of votes will be taken upon March 11 and results were expected the same day. (UNI)
