IIT(K) experts predict possible Corona 3rd wave in Sep-Oct

Kanpur: An expert team of IIT Kanpur has predicted three scenarios in the country over the possible third wave of Corona between September and October this year.

The Team claims that there is a significant anxiety among policy makers and public about the third wave.

"For the same, using SIR model, we have constructed the following three scenarios of a possible third wave using the epidemic parameters of the second wave.We assume that India is fully unlocked on July 15," said the team members Prof. Rajesh Ranjan and Prof Mahendra Verma in a statement here on Monday.

They say in Scenario 1 (Back-to-Normal): Third wave peak in October but a lower peak height than the second wave. Scenario 2 (Normal with virus mutations): The peak could be higher than the second one and may appear early (September) and Scenario 3 (Stricter interventions): The peak of the third wave could be delayed until late October with strict social distancing. Here too, the peak will be lower than the second wave.

The IIT(K) team in its key observations over the current pandemic situation claimed that the second wave has waned out significantly almost in every state except in some Northeast states like Mizoram, Manipur, Sikkim etc.

"India’s average daily case count has reduced significantly. As on June 19, it is 63,000 compared to the peak of about 4 lakhs. Besides most states have daily Test Positivity Rate(TPR) less than WHO recommended level 5% . However, Kerala, Goa, Sikkim, Meghalaya still have high daily TPR 10%," it said.

"India’s daily Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has increased recently to 3.5%, but cumulative CFR of the second wave is comparable to that of the first wave," team said.

The expert team said vaccination is known to break the transmission chain.

"At present, the model does not include vaccination, which should decrease the peak significantly. Revised model with vaccination and with more recent data on the same is being worked out," they said. (UNI)